Copper Needs New Supply. Which Mines Will Deliver?

Four projects approaching production, and what investors should consider before buying the companies behind them. 

By: Alexis Lee

A copper discovery made today might not become a mine until 2043. Investors looking for new supply this decade need to look further along the pipeline.

S&P Global estimates an average of 17 years from copper discovery to production. Meanwhile, electricity grids, electric vehicles and digital infrastructure are expanding demand, and depletion at older mines adds to the need for new supply (S&P Global).

Higher copper prices can improve a project’s economics overnight, but they cannot deliver permits, financing or a processing plant overnight.

So which miners are closest to delivering and how much could that new production change their businesses?

That led me to four projects: Eldorado Gold’s Skouries, Antofagasta’s Centinela expansion, Southern Copper’s Tía María and Silvercorp Metals’ El Domo. Antofagasta and Southern Copper are expanding established copper businesses. Eldorado and Silvercorp are adding copper exposure alongside precious-metals operations. 

For investors, reaching production is only part of the story. The opportunity lies in how much the market is already pricing in a project’s future contribution. That depends on the cost to finish, how reliably the mine operates and how much it adds to earnings. 

Eldorado Gold: the closest milestone

Eldorado Gold (TSX: ELD; NYSE: EGO)  has already crossed one important threshold. Its wholly owned Skouries project in Greece produced first copper-gold concentrate on September 8, 2026,  with commercial production targeted for Q4 2026. Planned life-of-mine averages are 67 million pounds of copper and 140,000 ounces of gold annually (Project update, September 2026).

The company operates across Canada, Greece and Turkey, and acquired McIlvenna Bay, another copper project, through Foran in April this year. Gold still dominates its established earnings base at 92% of revenue in Eldorado’s Q2 2026 earnings . As Skouries and McIlvenna Bay increase production, copper is expected to become a larger part of the company’s business.

Skouries is a porphyry deposit processed by flotation, which separates valuable minerals into concentrate. Its 2022 study assumed 90% copper recovery and 83% gold recovery. Those are design assumptions that investors will want to test against operating results. At about 15 times reported trailing earnings, Eldorado warrants a closer look, but the multiple alone does not establish a bargain. The Foran acquisition changed both the company’s asset base and share count, making past earnings a less straightforward guide to its future performance. 

The decisive evidence will be reliable throughput, recoveries approaching plan and falling group cash outflows after commercial production. A declaration of commercial production is the start of that test.

The next checkpoint is Eldorado’s October 28 third-quarter results and October 29 earnings call. Investors should look for updates on Skouries’ power connection (Skouries was still relying on temporary power in September), remaining capital spending, and progress toward the Q4 commercial-production target. Year-end results and 2027 guidance should then help investors assess whether production is increasing as planned, recoveries are meeting expectations and lower construction spending is translating into stronger cash flow.

Antofagasta: substantial growth, substantial expectations

Antofagasta (LSE: ANTO)  is an established Chilean copper producer with four mining operations: Los Pelambres, Centinela, Antucoya and Zaldívar. Copper represented approximately 77% of group revenue in the first half of 2026, giving investors more direct exposure to the metal than the gold- and silver-focused companies in this comparison.

Its next major growth project is a second concentrator, a plant that processes ore into copper concentrate, at its existing Centinela complex in northern Chile. Centinela brought together the El Tesoro and Esperanza operations in 2014. That history gives Antofagasta experience with the district’s ores and an established operating base on which to expand. 

The expansion is expected to add an average of 144,000 tonnes of copper annually over its first ten years. Antofagasta owns 70% of Centinela, equivalent to approximately 101,000 tonnes of that additional annual production while Marubeni owns the remaining 30%. The new plant will initially process sulphide ore from Esperanza Sur, followed later by Encuentro. 

For investors, the existing operation is an advantage, but the expansion still has to prove it can perform as planned. Once processing begins, watch how much ore the plant handles and how much copper it recovers. Those operating results will show whether the additional capacity is translating into saleable copper.

The August report targets completion of construction and commissioning during 2027, with ramp-up starting at year-end. It also identifies additional flotation-area work following geotechnical studies. A valuation that assumes a full year of new capacity in 2027 would be too optimistic (Company H1 results). 

At roughly 29 times reported trailing earnings, the shares require a convincing growth case. Established infrastructure supports delivery confidence, but does not remove construction or operating risk. Investors should watch flotation-area progress, the 2028 production outlook and the recovery at Los Pelambres following its weather disruption. Another delay would postpone the cash flow supporting today’s valuation. 

Southern Copper: capacity growth with a demanding price

Southern Copper (NYSE: SCCO)  is an established operator in Peru and Mexico, with copper as its core product and meaningful molybdenum, silver and zinc exposure. Tia Maria, in Peru’s Arequipa region, is designed to add 120,000 tonnes of copper cathodes annually, with initial production targeted for the second half of 2027 (Company Q2 results). 

Tía María will produce refined copper directly at the site, rather than concentrate that requires further processing. Its profitability will depend on how efficiently it extracts copper from the ore, how much it spends on processing chemicals and whether it has reliable electricity. Meeting its production target is only part of the test, it must also keep costs under control. Southern Copper brings relevant operating experience, but must still demonstrate that the new mine can perform as planned. 

The project’s history makes community relations particularly important. Opposition over environmental concerns delayed development for more than a decade before the 2024 restart. Continuing construction is stronger evidence of progress than a permit alone, but investors should still monitor local relationships, power-line completion and the pace of plant installation. 

With a market cap of approximately US$171 billion and a trailing earnings multiple of 30, Southern Copper needs a broader case than Tia Maria alone. The project adds capacity to an already large producer, but it does not transform the entire business. The shares may suit investors seeking established copper exposure, but the investment becomes less forgiving if copper prices weaken while construction spending rises. 

Silvercorp Metals: diversification with execution risk

Silvercorp Metals (TSX/NYSE American: SVM)  remains primarily a silver investment. Silver supplied 77% of revenue in the quarter ended June 2026. Its 75%-owned El Domo project in Ecuador, held alongside Salazar Resources, will add copper production and expand its operations beyond China. The mine plan forecasts 24 million pounds of annual payable copper over its first eleven years, with commissioning targeted for July 2027(Company Q1 FY2027 results) . 

The financing arrangements matter when assessing what El Domo could contribute to Silvercorp. Silvercorp funds all construction and receives priority cash distributions during the early years, before distributions eventually follow the 75:25 ownership split. A separate financing agreement also commits the project to delivering some future gold and silver production at discounted prices. Investors therefore need to account for these arrangements when estimating Silvercorp’s share of future cash flow. 

The ore has already presented a construction challenge. Higher sulphur content required larger processing equipment, contributing to a February budget revision from US$240 million to US$284 million and a six-month production delay. Laboratory tests have shown improved metal recoveries, but the operating plant must demonstrate that it can achieve those results consistently (Project update, February 2026) .  

Silvercorp’s mining experience in China and its plant contractor’s recent experience in Ecuador provide relevant experience for the build. Watch for plant installation, power, and spending against the revised budget. Investors should watch for recovery from China’s safety-related suspensions, because those mines generate cash while El Domo is being built.

At roughly US$2.38 billion market cap, this is a silver business with copper growth potential. Its appeal depends on valuing the existing operations sensibly and allowing for the stream, dilution and construction risk. El Domo diversifies the company, but does not replace the silver thesis.

What is already in the price?

Price-to-earnings, or P/E, compares a share price with annual earnings per share. A lower multiple can signal an undervalued business or reflect concerns about future earnings. A higher multiple can reflect expectations for growth, leaving less room for disappointment. 

Valuation Snapshot

Prices as of September 28, 2026; earnings on a trailing 12-month basis.

Silvercorp is shown on an adjusted earnings basis because its trailing reported results include substantial non-cash valuation charges related to its convertible notes. Its multiple is therefore not directly comparable with the reported P/E ratios above. Adjusted earnings should be considered alongside reported results and cash flow.

The clearest divide in the table is the price investors are paying for existing earnings. Antofagasta and Southern Copper trade at roughly 29 and 30 times trailing earnings, respectively, compared with about 14 times for Eldorado and 13 times for Silvercorp, although Silvercorp’s adjusted figure is not directly comparable.

Those higher multiples may reflect expectations for copper prices, growth and the quality of the existing operations. They also raise the question of how much upside remains if the new projects simply deliver as planned. For Eldorado and Silvercorp, the question is whether new copper production can contribute enough earnings to change how the market values their businesses. 

Eldorado offers the nearest test of whether new copper production can translate into stronger cash flow. Silvercorp offers copper growth alongside substantial silver exposure, with El Domo’s contribution dependent on construction costs and financing commitments. For Antofagasta and Southern Copper, successful expansions must add enough earnings to justify the higher price investors are already paying.