“Sell in May”: Does the Rule Fit Mining Stocks in 2026?
June 7, 2026
“Sell in May and go away.”
For decades, it has been one of the most repeated sayings on Wall Street.
The idea is that investors sell or reduce their stock exposure in May, sit out the slower summer months, and buy back in September when markets become more active again.
Depending on who you ask, the saying is partly rooted in the old habit of bankers, fund managers, and institutional investors disappearing for summer holidays, leaving trading desks quieter, liquidity thinner, and markets less active.
And honestly, anyone who works in the mining sector (I do!) can confirm that there is truth to the summer slowdown.
News flow can get quieter. Conferences thin out. Investor meetings slow down. People are travelling, at site, or on vacation. For junior mining companies especially, where sentiment and liquidity matter so much, the summer months can sometimes feel like shouting into the void.
So yes, the saying does exist for a reason.
But what if this year is different?
Gold and Silver Prices Are Already High
The biggest difference this year is that gold and silver prices are already high.
For years, investors have been waiting to see whether gold or silver will move higher. The story is more about potential: if metal prices rise, then mining stocks could benefit.
And the quieter summer months are not usually when people expect the sector to suddenly wake up.
This year, that move has already happened.
That matters because mining companies sell the metals they produce. When gold and silver prices are higher, producers can earn more money for the same ounce of metal. If their costs do not rise as quickly, more of that extra revenue can turn into profit.
That is why higher metal prices matter so much for miners.
Here is an example:
If a miner produces gold at an all-in sustaining cost of $1,500/oz and sells it for $2,000/oz, the margin is about $500/oz. But if gold rises to $3,000/oz and costs stay the same, that margin becomes $1,500/oz.
The gold price is up 50%, but the margin has tripled.
That is the power of operating leverage.
It is also why higher gold and silver prices can matter so much for mining stocks. Producers may generate stronger revenue, wider margins, better free cash flow, and healthier balance sheets.
And we are already starting to see this show up in company results. Many miners have reported record or near-record revenues in recent quarters. If gold and silver prices stay strong through the summer, that momentum could continue.
In that kind of environment, “Sell in May” might not be the right move.
We are watching higher prices flow through to mining companies in real time.
M&A Does Not Wait for September
The second reason this year feels different is M&A.
In mining, big companies constantly face one major challenge over and over again: they need to replace the metal they produce.
Every ounce of gold or silver that comes out of the ground has to be replaced somehow. A producer can do that through exploration, by expanding existing mines, or by buying another company that already has a strong project or producing asset.
And right now, that is not easy.
Years of underinvestment, permitting delays, and fewer high-quality development projects have made large, scalable gold assets harder to find.
It turns out you cannot just walk into the field, trip over a world-class deposit, and call it a day. Especially in good jurisdictions with the potential to become meaningful mines.
That scarcity is starting to show up in deal activity.
In May alone, Equinox Gold announced a deal to acquire Orla Mining, creating a larger North American gold producer valued at approximately US$18.5 billion. Regis Resources also agreed to acquire Vault Minerals in a transaction that would create one of Australia’s largest listed gold producers, with an estimated market capitalization of about A$10.7 billion.
Producers are not sitting around waiting for September. They are looking for growth now.
That matters for investors because mining M&A can happen quickly. When the market starts to believe that a developer, explorer, or mid-tier producer owns a scarce, high-quality asset, that company can attract attention fast, both from investors and potential buyers.
Sometimes, all it takes is one deal to shift sentiment across the sector. Investors start asking: who could be next?
That is why “Sell in May” feels riskier in this kind of market. Selling just because it is May introduces a different kind of risk: missing the sudden re-rating that can come when producers decide they need to secure quality assets before someone else does.
In a normal quiet summer, stepping aside might feel harmless.
But in a market where metals prices are strong and producers are hunting for growth, the next big move may not wait for the fall.
Conclusion: Maybe Don’t Go Away Just Yet
“Sell in May and go away” exists for a reason.
Summer can be slower. News flow can get quieter. Investor attention can drift. In mining, there are months where it can feel like everyone collectively put on an out-of-office reply and went fishing.
However, this year, the sector is not heading into summer quietly.
Gold and silver prices are already strong. Producers are starting to show what those higher prices can mean for their numbers. And with M&A picking up, the market is being reminded that good assets are still scarce.
That does not mean every mining stock is suddenly a buy.
The usual summer slowdown may still show up. Mining news flow can thin out, trading activity can get lighter, and not every stock will benefit equally from stronger metals prices or renewed deal activity.
But this year, investors also have to weigh another risk: stepping away just as stronger metal prices and M&A activity are giving the sector fresh momentum.
If “Sell in May” is about leaving when markets get quiet, the more relevant question this year may be whether the mining sector is really getting quiet at all.
Well, that was enough to digest for now (and a lot of typing for me!).
But I do think there is more to this story. Stronger metals prices and M&A are only part of the picture. Government support for critical minerals, rising geopolitical pressure around resource security, and continued central bank gold buying could also play a role in keeping the sector active through the summer.
Would you be interested in a Part 2?